This is the 50th edition of this newsletter. I’m forgoing links today to discuss quantum computing vendor announcements and how they affect the trust in those vendors.
Quantum Computing Announcements: It’s a Question of Trust
Last week, Microsoft announced its Majorana-1 chip with great fanfare, common among major corporations with big marketing and communications budgets and outreach.
In 2023, IBM made their so-called “quantum utility” announcement, which the New York Times covered in the article “Quantum Computing Advance Begins New Era, IBM Says.” Note the last two words of the title, which I can extend to mean “IBM said they did it, and we trust them enough that we will cover it.”
In December 2024, Google announced its Willow chip with septillions and multiverses. The New York Times wrote the article, “Quantum Computing Inches Closer to Reality After Another Google Breakthrough.” This one threw cautious trust out the window and asserted Google had found a breakthrough. I don’t think the newspaper verified this.
By the way, phrases in story titles and articles that state that quantum computing is edging closer to reality are redundant. With or without major corporate advancements, quantum computing is getting closer to being “useful.” Question for you: What is it if it is not useful now?
With Microsoft’s announcement, the Times was back to covering its bets: “Microsoft Says It Has Created a New State of Matter to Power Quantum Computers.” The Majorana topological qubit approach has a checkered background, with some scientific papers being retracted from major journals like Nature. Sergio Gago covers the pluses and minuses of the history and the announcement in his Substack newsletter article “The Week in Quantum Computing – February 24th – Majonara & Microsoft, IonQ, Infleqtion, Qureca, China.”
We may soon hear from other big players on the progress of quantum computing, and I expect them to try to outdo the three I mentioned above.
Regarding Microsoft, I was briefed several weeks ago on the Majorana news they were preparing to announce. It was a thorough discussion, and I was, and am, confident that they firmly believe what they said they did. I was also invited to an in-person meeting in Redmond two weeks ago but could not attend because I was in Riyadh for LEAP / DeepFest 2025. Microsoft has gone out of its way to plainly and directly discuss their progress with outsiders. Note to the other vendors: you should do more of the same.
Due to the past scientific irregularities, several physics community members still have doubts about Microsoft’s work. They must be convinced, and I’m sure Microsoft is working on that. I will yield to the scientists’ eventual conclusions.
I said above, “they firmly believe what they said they did.” But do I believe it?
My first response is, “How do I know? Why are you asking me?”.
I suppose that’s insufficient, so let’s try this: “I believe them to the maximum degree I believe anyone in the quantum industry.”
You see, though I have a mathematics and computer science background, I am not a physicist or a hardware engineer. I can’t show up at a company’s lab with an oscilloscope (or something, I don’t know) and ask to run a few tests on their equipment to validate their claims independently. Microsoft has claimed that DARPA has done just that, increasing my confidence. So, yes, I’m good with the announcement.
Let me generalize this discussion and state what I am not good or happy with from any vendor. Here we go:
- A lie of commission, which is a deliberate statement of something false.
- A marketing exaggeration or financial projection that is actually a lie of commission.
- A lie of omission, which deliberately misleads by withholding significant facts and information.
- A “breakthrough” that is just a minor advancement.
- A “breakthrough” in hardware or software that no one will use in the future.
- Anything “paving the way to one million qubits.” Get back to me when you hit 50,000 or 100,000 qubits. It’s an admirable goal to state, but asserting that you can definitely increase your qubit count by three or more orders of magnitude is far-fetched.
- Using a definition of convenience for “logical qubit,” and failing to state how the number of physical qubits must scale as the size of the system does.
- Making an unsubstantiated claim about the near-term applicability of quantum computing to AI, especially Generative AI.
A vendor should not do any of those if it wants us to believe its announcements. Doing any of these erodes trust. I am not a skeptic in general, but I become one regarding a vendor when I see any of the above.
My philosophy is not to call them out but to pretty much ignore them. If I did have to state my philosophy regarding the quantum industry, it is to be optimistic but realistic, and demand proof.
Sutor Group Intelligence and Advisory
Dr. Bob Sutor is the CEO and Founder of Sutor Group Intelligence and Advisory. Sutor Group provides broad market insights and deep technical expertise based on over four decades of experience with startups and large corporations. It advises Deep Tech startups, companies, and investors on quantum technologies, AI, enterprise software, and other emerging tech fields.
Sutor Group shares its knowledge and analysis through direct client engagements and seminars, reports, newsletters, books, written and on-air media appearances, and speaking and panel moderation at the top conferences and client events.
Disclosures and Disclaimers
Bob Sutor is a former employee of IBM and Infleqtion and holds equity positions or stock options in each company. He is a Non-Executive Director for Nu Quantum and Advisor to the venture capital firm Forma Prime.
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